The term “Nakba,” which translates to “catastrophe” in Arabic, refers to the mass displacement and dispossession of Palestinians that occurred during the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948. This event led to the uprooting of around 750,000 Palestinian Arabs from their homes, an event that still reverberates in Palestinian collective memory and continues to shape the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The proposal flouted by President Trump but quickly unilaterally shut down by Arab and world leaders has brought the possibility y a second Naqba in clear focus. As the conflict persists into the 21st century, discussions regarding a potential “Second Nakba” (also referred to as a “Naqba II”) have gained increased attention, particularly as political shifts, settlement expansion, military operations, and international tensions deepen. But what would a “Second Nakba” look like, and is it a realistic possibility? In this article, we will explore the potential scenarios that could lead to such a situation, its implications for Palestinians and the broader Middle East, and the international community’s role in averting such an outcome.
1. The Legacy of the Original Nakba
The original Nakba, which unfolded from 1947 to 1949, resulted in the destruction of over 400 Palestinian villages and towns, many of which were either demolished or repopulated by Jewish immigrants. In the wake of this catastrophe, Palestinians were forced into refugee camps in neighboring countries or into the West Bank and Gaza Strip, which were controlled by Jordan and Egypt, respectively.
The consequences of this displacement were profound. Not only did it result in the physical separation of families and the erosion of Palestinian communities, but it also created a persistent refugee problem that remains unresolved. In the years following the Nakba, the fate of Palestinian refugees has been central to the negotiations and debates surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Nakba was not a singular event in the history of the Palestinians but a symbol of the broader struggle for self-determination and the right to return to their land. As a result, the concept of Nakba remains central to Palestinian identity and continues to influence their political and social struggles, both within historical Palestine and in the diaspora.
2. The Foundations of a “Second Nakba”
A “Second Nakba” would imply a further large-scale displacement or dispossession of Palestinians, potentially occurring under a new set of circumstances, those of relocating the Palestinians as the very people who bombed in t full destruction now offereto clean it up, on condition that all two million Palestinians leave their homeland. While the original Nakba occurred in the context of the 1947-1948 war and the subsequent formation of Israel, a second catastrophe could be sparked by a range of factors in the contemporary landscape.
Some of the potential scenarios that could lead to a second Nakba include:
A. Escalation of Settler Expansion and Annexation
Over the past few decades, the Israeli government has allowed, and at times encouraged, the expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, particularly in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. These settlements are considered illegal under international law, but Israel has continued to build and expand them in defiance of global consensus.
A full annexation of the West Bank by Israel, a plan that has been floated by right-wing Israeli politicians, could lead to mass displacement. Palestinians living in the West Bank could face increased pressure to leave their homes, especially in areas designated for settlement expansion. This could result in the uprooting of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, marking the beginning of a second Nakba. The potential for displacement would be exacerbated by increased violence, military operations, and the removal of the already limited autonomy granted to Palestinians under the Palestinian Authority.
B. Violent Escalation of the Gaza Conflict
The Gaza Strip, home to around 2 million Palestinians, has been under an Israeli blockade for more than a decade. The region has witnessed several military operations, leading to immense destruction and loss of life. The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the failure to find a long-term peace agreement have created a volatile situation.
In the event of a major escalation of hostilities between Israel and Gaza’s ruling faction, Hamas, there could be a massive displacement of Palestinians. A “Second Nakba” could occur if the Israeli military, seeking to neutralize Hamas or secure its interests, intensifies its military campaign in Gaza to the point of further flattening neighborhoods and infrastructure. If large-scale destruction forces Gaza’s inhabitants to flee in large numbers, the displaced could face significant challenges, with no place to go but refugee camps or the open sea.
C. Internal Expulsion within Israel’s 1948 Borders
The 1948 Nakba largely focused on Palestinians in areas that became Israel. However, over the decades, Palestinian citizens of Israel (those who remained within Israel’s borders after its creation) have faced significant discrimination and land confiscation. The Israeli government has passed laws and implemented policies that have marginalized Palestinian citizens, denying them access to land, resources, and even basic civil rights.
A “Second Nakba” might occur if the Israeli government were to take more drastic measures against its Palestinian citizens, including expelling large numbers of them from their homes or cities in what is known as “ethnic cleansing.” If Israeli authorities resort to forced displacement as a means of securing more land for Jewish Israelis, or if the political environment shifts toward increasing hostility toward Palestinians within Israel, this could lead to a large-scale forced migration of Palestinians, mirroring the original Nakba.
D. Climate Change and Resource Scarcity
While not a traditional political or military issue, climate change and resource scarcity in the region due to war could play a major role in creating conditions that might lead to a second Nakba. The Middle East, including Israel and Palestine, is experiencing rising temperatures, severe droughts, and water shortages, which are putting additional pressure on already scarce resources.
A region plagued by war displacement could see large numbers of Palestinians forced to migrate, either internally within Palestine or beyond its borders. In this scenario, the already strained political and humanitarian situation could be exacerbated, making it even harder for displaced Palestinians to return to their land, particularly if their land has been appropriated for new Israeli settlement projects.
3. The International Dimension: A World Indifferent?
While the potential for a second Nakba is a deeply troubling scenario, the international community’s response plays a pivotal role in either averting or facilitating such a tragedy. The United Nations, the European Union, and other international actors have long called for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but diplomatic efforts have largely stalled.
The international community’s inability or unwillingness to act decisively may embolden Israeli policies of annexation, settlement expansion, and military aggression. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) remains a key institution for Palestinian refugees, but its capacity to aid and ensure basic rights is limited, particularly with the reduction of international aid and the growing politicization of the issue.
Furthermore, the lack of accountability for Israel’s actions—whether in the form of settlements, military actions, or displacement—means that the risk of a second Nakba could go unaddressed. International law is often ignored, and the imbalance of power in the conflict has led to a sense of helplessness in resolving the underlying causes of Palestinian suffering.
4. The Path Forward
A “Second Nakba” is not an inevitable outcome, but it is a very real risk that could unfold under certain political, social, and environmental conditions. Whether it stems from aggressive Israeli settlement policies, the internal expulsion of Palestinians, an escalation of violence in Gaza, or the adverse impacts of climate change, the potential for widespread displacement remains a significant threat to Palestinian communities.
To avoid this tragic scenario, a renewed commitment to peace negotiations is essential, as well as a stronger international effort to hold all parties accountable for violations of international law. For Palestinians, the right to return, self-determination, and the establishment of a sovereign state remain at the heart of their struggle. For Israel and its people, a lasting peace can only be built on justice, equality, and respect for the rights of Palestinians.
The key to averting a second Nakba lies not just in the avoidance of physical displacement but in addressing the root causes of Palestinian suffering—occupation, inequality, and dispossession—through genuine and sustained diplomatic efforts, international cooperation, and a commitment to human rights for all.
KHOTSO. PULA. NALA
BY ABUBACAR JABBIE